The Great Sorting Has Begun!

If you’ve been a reader of this blog or a listener of the podcast for a while now, you know that I very rarely put out episodes that attempt to coddle your emotions or allay any fears you may have about the future and reassure you that everything will be ok. I don’t know if it will be ok for you. I can’t know that. Only you can know that. If you listened to the last episode, hopefully you accepted the premise that nobody is coming to save you.

If you’re in any of my coaching programs you likely listened to my year end message, which essentially said that I don’t believe this year will reward those who are comfortable. In many ways and many areas of life, I believe this year will be more challenging than the last.

If you’ve studied history, you’ll know that history moves in predictablecycles driven by a variety of factors that each successive generation creates. These generational shifts shape the collective personality of the generations coming of age in that era. If you’re not familiar with the Strauss-Howe theory of history, I won't bore you with all the details, it's fine to simply know that we are currently in what is referred to as the ‘fourth turning’.

The generational cycles are 20 to 25-year phases that climax around the 80 to 100th years of the cycle, which we’re in right now. The fourth turning is the crisis phase, which is where a nation confronts issues and threats that cause massive structural change. We’re in that phase now and history has been very clear: it rewards those who prepare for and can withstand, not just discomfort, but the complete lack of comfort. It does not reward those with blinders on thinking everything will simply go back to the way things were. The great sorting has begun.

What is the great sorting, you ask? Well, just look around you. Everything is being sorted based on different traits and skills than what was rewarded in the past. The market is not asking who has the best intentions. It’s not rewarding and paying for effort. It’s not paying you for your stress and anxiety. It’s sorting based on two primary things: capability and output.

If you’ve been telling yourself, “Once volume comes back, I’ll be fine,” you might be right. You also might be lying to yourself. The old playbook doesn’t work the same anymore. The comfortable middle gets squeezed. The people who relied on stability get exposed. The people who built capability get rewarded. This is not meant to be motivational, nor is it me fear mongering. This is just reality.

And if you’ve been paying attention, you already feel it. The Great Sorting is the shakeup that happens when industries get squeezed and modernized at the same time. Volume gets choppy. Expectations go up. Tech improves. The market get pickier. New entrants to the market are introduced. The tolerances change, and not always for the better.

And in this environment, the “average operator” gets punished or worse, pushed out of business. The serious players get paid and do well because they saw the writing on the wall. While the comfortable middle is sitting around complaining about the changes and those with capability adapt. This is not the end of the appraisal business, but this is the end of appraisal as a lazy business model that you can just sit back and ride. It is the end of “I’ll just keep my head down, do my reports, and the market will provide.”

Which, by the way, was never a good strategy, it was simply a wave that many rode thinking they had created it.

So, in this episode, I’m going to lay out what is being sorted and why it’s happening. To not overload you too much, I’m going to explain exactly what you need to do in the next 90 days if you want to be on the winning side of this, but I’m saving that for the next episode. If I told you all the ways the market is sorting the performers from the nonperformers and also gave you the 90-day plan for dealing with it in the same episode, it would overwhelm you.

listen to this episode and take notes! Listen to this episode multiple times because there will be some things you simply didn’t hear on listens one or two. Then, next week when the follow up episode comes out with the 90-day great sorting plan, you will have digested much of what I talk about in this episode and you’ll be ready for action with the plan.

Of course, if you want me to walk you through all of this like I do with our coaching members almost every week, along with regular live market and industry update videos, just head over to www.coachblaine.com/freemonth and you can become part of one of the most educational business communities for appraisers there is and you can try it out free for a full month to see if you’ll get some value from it. In addition to the live video market and industry updates, I do a monthly training for our members and its always on something that will put more dollars in your bank account and make your appraisal business better.

Let’s talk about the great sorting and see if any of these categories resonate with you because there are a few lines in the sand right now and the economy and the market is drawing them for you.

Sorting line number one: Operators versus order takers

Order takers wait for assignments They are like people standing in a food line begging for some government cheese (which isn’t even real cheese!). They complain about fees. They blame AMCs. They blame the Fed. They blame borrowers. They blame agents. They blame other appraisers. They blame everyone except the one thing they control.

Real business operators create their own demand, they don’t wait for it to show up and knock on their door. Real operators choose their clients deliberately and only the ones that align with their core values. Real operators build long-term relationships. Real operators design offers and products that solve real problems. Real operators build trust and stay visible. Real operators thank their clients for the business they receive every chance they get. And real business operators become key people of influence in their market instead of hiding behind a license and an attitude.

Friends, if your income depends on someone else’s queue, you do not own your business, they do! You own a job with extra steps. You have an HR department and didn’t even know it. And if that offends you, good. That means you still have an ego that’s attached to a very fragile business model.

In 2026 and beyond, the order takers won’t fair well long term. You either decide to be a real operator, or you take out burial insurance because the death of your so-called ‘business’ is somewhere on the horizon. It may not be this year or even within the next 5, but I believe it will manifest as a slow decline in fees and quality of work and an increase in scope, liability, revision requests, and absurd treatment of those with no boundaries or backbone.

Sorting line number two: Generalists versus specialists

I’ve talked about this before and the rules have not changed. Generalists compete on price because they sound like everyone else. Specialists compete on outcomes because they own their lane. The market does not pay a premium for “I do appraisals”, just as it doesn’t pay a premium for “we sell hamburgers”. The market pays a premium for “I solve this specific problem for this specific client, with a clear process, defensible results, and a smile on my face.”

The specialist will always be able to command a price premium because the client is not buying a form. They are buying certainty, clarity, familiarity, and reduced risk. That is called pricing power and you get it by doing or having three things:

1.Market strategy and differentiation

2.Operational excellence

3.Customer selection

If you’re going to bark back at me by saying, “the AMCs control the price, Blaine!”, I would wholeheartedly agree with you. And if the bulk of your business comes from that source, you don’t have pricing power and you’re not a real operator, you’re a nameless, faceless generalist vendor serving hotdogs on the street corner. Nothing wrong with that if that’s what you want to do, be, and have, but then you can’t also keep lying to yourself and your family at Christmas time that you’re a real business operator. You’re a manager of a business that is owned by the AMCs. The real trick they pulled over the industry wasn’t becoming a non-value add middle management tier, it was in making appraisers think they actually owned a business.

I’ll say it again: if your business relies on AMCs as your primary source of income, that’s fine. Many have made decent livings doing that, just don’t lie to yourself that you’re somehow different from every other appraiser on that panel. You’re a nameless, faceless license number in a rotation and you’ll be replaced microseconds after they drop you for having a shitty scorecard. That is not being a real business operator, that is being a generalist vendor of services anyone can get for $10 cheaper on the next street corner. You have zero pricing power.

To have control over the prices you charge, you have to have some kind of market differentiation, some form of operational excellence, and (this one is big!)you select your customers. If all three of those things don’t exist, you’re not a specialist, you’re a generalist, and generalists get relegated to the bottom tier of pricing as a form of natural selection over time.

When you see an order come into your email box and it’s a ridiculously low fee, don’t get mad at the AMC, get mad at yourself that you’re even playing that game! They’re just doing what evolution has dictated for them. Generalists don’t command increasing fees because they don’t choose their customers. As soon as you can start to choose your customers, you’re entering the world of the specialist.

What does it mean to choose your customers? It means saying no to the ones where you have no relationship. It means being able to have lunch with the owner or speak at an event sponsored by them. It means being remembered, respected, and revered by all the local professionals in your market and thus the one they refer all of their business to.

Of course, that’s not going to be the case with every client, but it should be the baseline on which you judge all other client relationships. Think of what you allow in your personal life in terms of friends, family, and acquaintances and the kind of treatment and behavior you allow. Do you allow any of those people to abuse you? If so, your client mix likely reflects that. If you don’t allow people to abuse you in your personal life, why in the world would you allow it in your professional life.

When you make the decision to be a specialist over a generalist you are giving yourself permission to clean out the proverbial closet of people who don’t treat you the way you believe should be treated. Clients who question your fees, take forever to pay, pit you against your competitors in the form of reverse auctions to see who will bid the lowest for work. Sorry friends, those are not the kind of people you need in your life or your business and one of the only ways to change that is to become a specialist. The great sorting of the specialists from the generalists has begun. Pick one lane that you can own and be revered in and own it.

Sorting line number three: Visible experts versus invisible technicians

Friends, anonymity is expensive. The market is shifting toward trust and familiarity, especially in an age of AI. People want to know who they’re hiring. They want to feel like and know you’re real. They want to see competence before they pay for it. In 2026, the best appraiser is often not the one with the deepest internal knowledge. It’s the one who can communicate knowledge in a way that reduces fear and increases confidence.

I’ve taught and talked about this one extensively in my coaching programs and it’s the ‘expert vs authority’ debate. I know some real experts in their fields, as I’m sure you do as well, and they’re relatively unknown. They don’t earn as much as they could and should be paid for the level of expertise they have, but its often expertise in a very narrow lane of experience.

The wall of anonymity is real and, until you break through it, you’re essentially like the starving artist waiting to be discovered. Far better to be a known person of influence and considered an authority on a topic than to be an unknown expert.

Visible experts win. Invisible technicians get treated like commodities and then act surprised when the only conversations they have are about price and turn time. If you’re not visible, you are voluntarily and intentionally irrelevant.

In 2026, the ones who step out of the shadows and into a world where they’re becoming recognized and eventually revered are the ones who win long term. The great sorting has begun and you’ll either become known or you’ll be told what to do by somebody else forever. You’re either a visible expert or an invisible technician.

Sorting line number four: People who can sell versus people who hate selling

Let me say this as directly as possible: selling is not sleazy, it’s service. Selling is clarity. Selling is the ability to explain value in a way that reduces risk for the buyer of whatever it is you’re offering. If you cannot explain your value, you will always be priced like a commodity.

Most appraisers I work with need 2 things: more leads and better conversion of those leads. They need more sources (which comes from being known and respected), better conversion of the leads that come from those sources, better positioning in their respective markets, and better articulation of their value proposition.

If your communication skills are weak, your income will be weak. That’s it. Simple. End of story. The great sorting has begun and those of you who don’t know how to sell yourselves beyond the worn-out fear tactic of, “we’re the only ones protecting the market” will continue to see decline.

Nobody cares that you think you’re somehow the savior of the market. First off, you’re not. Secondly, people are naturally self-interested and they want what they want. People buy real estate speculatively, which means they are hoping it will increase in value with time. The vast majority of people don’t care if they’re overpaying a bit because they assume whatever the price today, the value will be more tomorrow.

I am not saying that we don’t provide a valuable service to the market. I’m simply telling you that you’ve sold yourself that your value is rooted in some noble service you’re doing for your customer and its simply not that noble. It’s not the great value to the market you think it is. We’re either a necessary evil in the lending process or somebody needs asset valuation for a divorce, an estate, or personal gratification.

First, figure out what your real value proposition is to the majority of the market, and then learn how to sell the benefits instead of the features. If you don’t know what that means, that’s the first place to begin. The great sorting has begun, and you’ll either learn how to sell or you’ll settle for what’s leftover.

Sorting line number five: Tech adopters versus tech avoiders

This too is a simple one. You either adopt and adapt, or you go the way of the buggy whip. Tech advancements are compressing the middle. It will not replace great appraisers. But it’s definitely replacing average systems and processes. Technology, and especially AI, is making things easier, faster, and it’s making it considerably easier for one person to do what multiple tools and multiple people used to do.

I get it! Change is frustrating. We’re all facing it with the UAD 3.6 change coming. Nobody likes disruptions to their flow and the systems that have, in many cases taken years to build. But that’s just life and business. Things change and things evolve. The great sorting has begun and it favors the tech adopters over the tech avoiders.

Sorting line number six: Boundary setters versus people pleasers

If you do not learn to control scope, timeline, fees, and how you work, the clients will. Scope creep is a very real thing and it’s a silent killer. It destroys your schedule, your margins, and your sanity. The appraisers who win in the next era will be the ones with written policies, strong systems, and consistent boundaries, and the ability to walk away from business that won’t accept those boundaries.

This goes back to being able to choose your clients. One of the greatest powers and strengths an human can have is the ability to walk away. If you need those orders from that AMC because you’ve got bills to pay, I get it, but me understanding that need does in no way make you any less of slave to somebody else.

Whatever it is, if you are unable to walk away from it, it owns you. It doesn’t matter if it’s a relationship, a car or house payment, a client, or a business. The ability to walk away is supreme power. When you have the ability to say ‘no’ to a client’s proposal or a demand, you hold the power to say ‘yes’ to everything else you want instead. The key that unlocks that power is being ok with the brief discomfort of not having that money for a period of time, which most of you can’t walk away from because you’ve painted your life into a corner.

Unshackle yourself from that fear and watch things change all around you. The great sorting has begun and it’s not rewarding those who feel comfortable and safe in their castles. It will reward those who can get comfortable in discomfort for a season while digging a deeper moat of protection in another area. The great sorting will reward those who can set firm boundaries, not only for the clients, customers, and family members taking advantage of your people pleasing dysfunctions, but also the boundaries you learn to set for yourself.

Admit it, there are areas of your life that you’ve let get out of control. Might be your health, maybe your eating habits, your relationships, your lack of wealth tracking, the things you said 2 years ago you were going to do but haven’t yet. It’s not a market problem, it’s not a money problem, it’s not a ‘my kids are still young’ problem, it’s a discipline problem and a boundary problem. Until you decide what your non-negotiable are, you’ll almost always choose mediocrity.

Friends, The Great Sorting is not coming, it is already here. It’s been happening for a while, and it is sorting people based on who owns their business and who is just being carried by the market. It’s sorting based on the operators and the order takers, the visible experts and the invisibility technicians, the generalists and the specialists, the tach adopters and the tech avoiders, and those who can display real leadership and set boundaries versus those who can’t kick the habit of people pleasing.

The Great Sorting is like gravity in that it doesn’t matter nor care whether you believe it exists or not, all are affected by it and subject to its rules. We’re all being sorted in some way, the decision is up to you whether or not you get squeezed into the upper echelons of life and business or related to the busiest, nosiest, and more crowded playing field at the bottom.

Until next time, I’m out…